Ongoing maintenance of our transport assets and the delivery of public transport services will continue to remain a significant focus for investment in the 2024–27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP), along with meeting the Government’s commitments to Auckland Transport Alignment Project (ATAP), Let’s Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) and Road to Zero.
Significant regional activities identified in RLTPs that are expected to be considered for funding in the 2024–27 NLTP include:
The revenue forecast is based on fuel excise duty, road user charges and motor vehicle registry fees forecasts made through the most recent Ministry of Transport revenue model, including reductions for impacts from Government Policy changes such as the Clean Car Discount scheme. Forecast revenue over the next 10 years is shown as a band, which indicates the estimated range of forecasting risk. Revenue will vary from forecast (and potentially outside the indicated forecast range) depending on a range of factors including: economic growth and the continuing impacts of COVID-19.
For the 2021–24 NLTP, the low end of the forecast range has been assumed to reflect the uncertainty from COVID and to reduce the risk from a higher level of over-programming of expenditure than in the previous 2018–21 NLTP.
The 2021/22 financial year shows higher revenue because of the NLTF opening balance and reflects that in 2021/22 there is a high level of forecast expenditure on in-flight projects.
The forecast revenue also includes additional Crown funding for Rail and the corresponding expenditure.
The medium revenue from the Ministry of Transport has been used beyond 2023/2024.
2021–24 NLTP expenditure is based on the risk-adjusted forecast of expenditure on activities already committed or expected to be approved during the NLTP period.
Expenditure can vary from forecast depending on a variety of factors impacting project delivery, for example resource consenting; resource availability; weather; sequencing of work by councils.
We are required to match expenditure to available revenue in aggregate and within the available revenue received in that year. Expenditure will also be managed in line with the actual revenue and available finance each year.
Forecast expenditure reflects use of an expected $2 billion financing facility from the Crown. We have assumed that this facility is available and fully utilised within the three-year period with no debt repayments in the 10-year period. The exact terms of any loan are still to be agreed. With the use of the facility, forecast expenditure will align to by forecast revenue (including borrowings).
The expenditure forecast for the subsequent seven years (from 2024/25) is set at the mid-point of the expenditure targets set out in Government Policy Statement on land transport (GPS) 2021.