The vehicle-ownership forecasting model research project, undertaken in 1996–1997, is described. The two principal objectives of the research are to provide:
a model or basis for forecasting vehicle-ownership trends at national and regional levels in New Zealand over the next 20 years (2000–2020)
a set of preliminary forecasts of future vehicle-ownership levels, based on these models.
The basis for forecasting vehicle ownership, by determining both the level of saturation and the growth path to saturation, is explained, then applied to develop a series of national forecasts of vehicle ownership per person. An approach for deriving regional forecasts that are consistent with the national forecasts is also described.
Keywords: Forecasting, modelling, New Zealand, ownership, roads, traffic, vehicles