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Research Report 192 Accident prediction models

Published: | Category: Safety, security and public health , Research programme , Research & reports | Audience: General

Accident prediction models have been developed for rural and urban intersections and links. This includes models for traffic signals, roundabouts, priority and uncontrolled intersections, rural highways, motorways and urban arterial, collector and local streets. Accident (1995 to 1999) and flow data at over 1000 sites throughout New Zealand were used to develop the models.

Test statistics have been prepared showing the goodness-of-fit and confidence intervals of the models.

Application of the models in economic evaluation has been discussed along with the changes that would need to be made to the Project evaluation manual to incorporate the models.

Keywords: accidents, economic evaluation, prediction models, test statistics, rural and urban, intersections, mid-block sites, Bayesian methods

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: 2000
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