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Research report 394 Development and application of a New Zealand car ownership and traffic forecasting model

Published: | Category: Transport demand management , Research programme , Research & reports | Audience: General

This research investigated improved methods for forecasting car ownership and use in New Zealand. It compiled and reviewed current data and information on car ownership and use.

From this data an aggregate car ownership model for New Zealand was developed. This model predicts that economic conditions and car prices will have a significant impact on future car ownership.

A future framework for forecasting car ownership and use in New Zealand was developed, based on reviewing current New Zealand practice, international practice and by undertaking a user needs survey. The resulting recommended long-term framework is a national static disaggregate model.

A short- to medium-term framework was also developed which provides an intermediate step to address some of the current shortcomings in New Zealand practices. The research was primarily undertaken in 2007/08.

Keywords: car, forecasting, ownership Keywords: car, forecasting, ownership 

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: December 2009
  • Reference: 394