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Research Report 481 Demand for transport services: impact on networks of older persons' travel as the population of New Zealand ages

Published: | Category: Sustainable land transport , Research programme , Research & reports | Audience: General

This research, undertaken in 2010, aimed to provide predictions of older persons' (age 65+) demand for transport until the mid-21st century in New Zealand, and how this will affect our networks.

  • Projections which do not take an aging population into account overstate the increase in household travel by ~40%.
  • Assumptions about population health factors make a small difference in travel estimates to 2020 but have greater impact thereafter.
  • Changes in the age structure of the workforce increased total household travel demand by about 1%.
  • Wide regional variations mean that each region will require its own approach to future transport and safety.
  • Public transport will be a minor mode without improved public transport for suburban neighbourhoods.
  • Vehicle safety, operator and accessibility issues need to be addressed.
  • People aged 65-80 years are relatively content with the transport system, but those who are older indicated they would travel more if they could.
  • Older women feel more constrained in their travel choices than older men.
  • Road deaths and injuries will be similar to those expected for a population without any age structure change. However, older persons' injuries will become a greater proportion of all road trauma.

Keywords: aging, future demand, household travel, New Zealand, older people, population, road network, road safety, SuperGold Card, transport

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: May 2012
  • Reference: 481
  • ISBN/ISSN: ISBN 978-0-478-39433-7 (electronic)