Back to Resources

Research Report 554 Travel time predictability

Published: | Category: Sustainable land transport , Research programme , Research & reports | Audience: General

Reliable journey time is a key parameter in travellers' route choice and has important applications in transport planning and modelling. For transport users, it affects their choice of mode, journey route and also their activity patterns. For transport planners and policy makers, journey time estimates are used to provide key indicators for performance monitoring, congestion management, travel demand modelling and forecasting, traffic simulation, air quality analysis, evaluation of travel demand and traffic operations strategies.

This research aimed to clarify how historical baseline data combined with near real-time data including environmental conditions, incidents and traffic flow could contribute to the calculation of reliable and timely delivered travel time predictions.

A comprehensive literature review was undertaken to establish existing methods for predicting travel time. Based on the findings of the literature review, and using sample data from Auckland's strategic road network, a model was developed to determine if these methods could be applied to strategic roads throughout New Zealand.

Keywords: modelling (auto-regressive moving average and non-linear time series analysis), predictability, travel time

Publication details

  • Author:
  • Published: August 2014
  • ISBN/ISSN: 978-0-478-41966-5